Texas A&M AgriLife study reveals why food waste rises, falls as incomes grow
Emiliano Lopez Barrera looked at patterns that shape how households buy, use and discard food.
A new study by a Texas A&M AgriLife Research agricultural economist offers fresh insight into a global problem hiding in plain sight: How can we measure household food waste when it is so hard to track consistently?
Emiliano Lopez Barrera, Ph.D., is an assistant professor in the Department of Agricultural Economics in the Texas A&M College of Agriculture and Life Sciences. He and his co-authors developed a new way to estimate consumer food waste across countries and over time.
Their study addresses the long-standing challenge of consistent estimating by using a model-based approach that is less costly than food diaries or direct tracking and flexible enough to be applied with different datasets at different scales, from household surveys to broader country-level analysis.
“Before this, estimates were scattered and often costly,” Lopez Barrera said. “Without consistent measurement across places and over time, it is hard to track progress.”
A new way to measure a hidden problem
The research, published in the American Journal of Agricultural Economics, was co-authored by Dominic Vieira ’25, Ph.D., a former student in the Department of Agricultural Economics and incoming assistant professor at California State University, Fresno, and Marcelo Dias Paes Ferreira, Ph.D., a visiting scholar in the department and professor at the Federal University of Viçosa, Brazil.
Emiliano Lopez Barrera, Ph.D., an agricultural economist with Texas A&M AgriLife Research, led a study examining how household food waste changes as incomes rise, revealing patterns that could inform policy and consumer behavior.
Food waste has long been difficult to quantify, especially beyond farms and supply chains. While losses at earlier stages in the value chain are easier to track, waste at the household and retail levels is far more complex, Lopez Barrera said.
To overcome that gap, he and his collaborators expanded on previous applications of a method known as stochastic frontier analysis, typically used to measure efficiency in production, to estimate how much food purchased by consumers goes uneaten.
Their findings suggest an “inverted U-shaped” pattern, with estimated food waste tending to increase in middle-income stages before leveling off and declining at higher income levels.
The method also separates shorter-term changes in food waste from deeper, longer-lasting patterns, and the study finds that those longer-lasting patterns account for the larger share of waste. That suggests reducing food waste will require sustained, long-term strategies rather than relying only on short-term interventions.
Why wealth changes how people waste
At lower income levels, households tend to consume most of what they purchase. As incomes rise, people begin to overbuy, often to save time or avoid running out of food, leading to higher waste.
At even higher income levels, waste appears to stabilize and decline. Lopez Barrera said several factors may explain this shift, including education, improved planning and reduced sensitivity to price fluctuations.
“There may be a point where people become more efficient in managing their resources,” he said. “But we still need to understand why.”
The study points to modern food systems as a contributing factor. Greater access to affordable, diverse and year-round food driven by globalization is linked to increased waste, particularly in wealthier countries.
Implications for policy and households
The findings carry significant implications for both policymakers and consumers.
Globally, food waste contributes to environmental strain by increasing demand for land, water and energy. Reducing waste could ease pressure on natural resources and improve food availability.
“There are conflicting forces,” Lopez Barrera said. “We have a growing population and rising incomes, which are pushing resource use to unprecedented levels.”
At the household level, reducing food waste can lead to direct financial savings. Better planning and purchasing habits can lower grocery bills while reducing environmental impact.
The research also connects food waste to food insecurity. When consumers buy more than they need, it can drive up demand and prices, making food less accessible for lower-income households.
“If we reduce waste, even partially, that can have an effect on prices,” he said.
From waste to opportunity
Beyond reducing waste, Lopez Barrera sees opportunities to reuse the leftover food.
His ongoing research explores how discarded food can support a “circular bioeconomy,” including converting waste into animal feed, bioenergy or alternative proteins such as insect-based products.
“There are opportunities here,” he said. “This doesn’t have to be just a problem; it can also be part of the solution.”
As researchers refine measurement tools and expand data analysis, Lopez Barrera hopes the work will guide more effective policies and innovations. “The first step is measuring it correctly,” he said. “This work is a step in that direction, opening the door to applications from tracking progress on food waste reduction efforts to exploring the potential for food waste reuse.”
